پیش‌نویس:تغییر اقلیم

تغییرات دمای هوای سطحی در ۵۰ سال گذشته. شمالگانبیشترین گرم شدن را داشته است و دما در خشکی به‌طور کلی بیش از دمای سطح دریا

میانگین دمای هوای سطح زمین از زمان انقلاب صنعتی تقریباً ۱٫۵  درجه سانتیگراد (حدود ۲٫۵ درجه فارنهایت) افزایش یافته است. نیروهای طبیعی باعث ایجاد تغییراتی می‌شوند، اما میانگین ۲۰ ساله تأثیر تدریجی فعالیت‌های انسانی را نشان می‌دهد.

در استفاده متداول، «تغییر آب و هوا»، «گرمایش جهانی» —افزایش مداوم میانگین دمای جهانی—و تأثیرات گسترده‌تر آن بر سامانه اقلیمی زمین را توصیف می‌کند. تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم همچنین شامل تغییرات طولانی مدت قبلی در آب و هوای زمین می‌شود. افزایش فعلی در دمای متوسط جهانی اجماع علمی درباره تغییر اقلیم است، به ویژه سوزاندن سوخت فسیلی از زمان انقلاب صنعتی است. استفاده از سوخت فسیلی، عمل‌های جنگل‌زدایی و تغییر اقلیم، و برخی نشر گازهای گلخانه‌ای در کشاورزی و آثار زیست‌محیطی بتن را آزاد می‌کنند. این گازها اثر گلخانه‌ای که زمین تابش گرمایی پس از آن از نور خورشید گرم می‌شود، پایین‌ترین جو را گرم می‌کند. کربن دی‌اکسید، گاز گلخانه‌ای اولیه که باعث گرم شدن زمین می‌شود، کربن دی‌اکسید در اتمسفر زمین است و در سطوحی است که برای میلیون‌ها سال دیده نشده است.

تغییرات آب و هوایی به‌طور فزاینده ای تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم بزرگ است. بیابان‌زایی، در حالی که موج گرماها و آتش‌سوزی جنگلها رایج‌تر می‌شوند. گرمایش تقویت شده در قطب شمال به ذوب شدن کمک کرده است پایایخبندان، عقب‌نشینی یخچال‌های طبیعی از سال ۱۸۵۰ و کاهش دریایخ شمالگان.دماهای بالاتر نیز باعث چرخندهای حاره‌ای و تغییر اقلیم، خشکسالی و سایر هوای غیرعادی می‌شوند.تغییر سریع محیطی در بوم‌سازگان کوهستانی، صخره‌های مرجانی و تغییر اقلیم در شمالگان بسیاری از گونه‌ها را مجبور به جابجایی یا خطر انقراض از تغییر اقلیم می‌کند. حتی اگر تلاش‌ها برای به حداقل رساندن گرمایش آینده موفقیت‌آمیز باشد، برخی از اثرات برای قرن‌ها ادامه خواهد داشت. اینها عبارتند از: گرمایش اقیانوس، اسیدی شدن اقیانوس و زایش سطح آب دریاها.

تغییر اقلیم مردم را تهدید می‌کند با افزایش سیل، افزایش گرمای شدید، غذا و کمبود آب، افزایش بیشتر بیماری، و تحلیل اقتصادی تغییرات اقلیمی. مهاجرت اقلیمی و تعارض هم می‌تواند در نتیجه باشد. سازمان جهانی بهداشت]] تغییرات اقلیمی را یکی از بزرگ‌ترین تهدیدات بهداشت جهانی در قرن بیست و یکم می‌نامد. جوامع و اکوسیستم‌ها بدون کاهش تغییر اقلیم خطرات شدیدتری را تجربه خواهند کرد. سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم از طریق تلاش‌هایی مانند مهار سیل اقدامات یا خشکی‌رست تا حدی خطرات تغییرات اقلیمی را کاهش می‌دهد، اگرچه برخی از محدودیت‌ها به سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم قبلاً رسیده‌اند. برای زمینه‌ها، بخش‌ها و مناطق خاص مستند شده است (اعتماد بالا)... محدودیت‌های نرم برای سازگاری در حال حاضر توسط کشاورزان و خانواده‌های کوچک در امتداد برخی مناطق ساحلی کم ارتفاع (اعتماد متوسط) که ناشی از مالی، حکومتی، نهادی و محدودیت‌های سیاست (اعتماد بالا). برخی از اکوسیستم‌های استوایی، ساحلی، قطبی و کوهستانی به محدودیت‌های سازگاری سخت (اعتماد بالا) رسیده‌اند. سازگاری حتی با سازگاری مؤثر و قبل از رسیدن به محدودیت‌های نرم و سخت (اعتماد بالا) جلوی همه زیان‌ها و آسیب‌ها را نمی‌گیرد. بیشترین آسیب‌پذیر در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی هستند.

Examples of some تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم: آتش‌سوزی جنگل intensified by heat and drought, سفیدشدگی مرجان occurring more often due to marine heatwaves, and worsening خشکسالیs compromising water supplies.

بسیاری از تأثیرات تغییرات آب و هوایی در سال‌های اخیر احساس شده است، به طوری که سال ۲۰۲۳ از زمان شروع ردیابی منظم در سال ۱۸۵۰، گرمترین سال با +۱٫۴۸ تغییر درجه سلسیوس (۲٫۶۶ تغییر درجه فارنهایت) بوده است. گرم شدن اضافی این تأثیرات را افزایش می‌دهد و می‌تواند نقطه‌های عطف سامانه اقلیمی را آغاز کند، مانند ذوب همه یخسار گرینلند. بر اساس توافق پاریس ۲۰۱۵، کشورها به‌طور جمعی توافق کردند که گرمایش را «زیر ۲ درجه سانتیگراد» حفظ کنند. با این حال، با تعهداتی که تحت این توافقنامه داده شده است، گرمایش جهانی همچنان تا پایان قرن به حدود ۲٫۸ تغییر درجه سلسیوس (۵٫۰ تغییر درجه فارنهایت) خواهد رسید.محدود کردن گرمایش به ۱٫۵ درجه سانتیگراد مستلزم کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای تا سال ۲۰۳۰ به نصف و دستیابی به انتشار خالص صفر تا سال ۲۰۵۰ است.

حذف سوخت‌های فسیلی توسط نگهداری انرژی و تغییر به منابع انرژی که آلودگی کربنی قابل توجهی تولید نمی‌کنند. این منابع انرژی عبارتند از انرژی بادی، برق خورشیدی، انرژی آبی و انرژی هسته‌ای. برق تولید شده پاک می‌تواند جایگزین سوخت‌های فسیلی برای وسیله نقلیه الکتریکی، گرمایش الکتریکی و فرآیندهای صنعتی در حال اجرا شود. کربن همچنین می‌تواند حذف شدن از اتمسفر باشد، به عنوان مثال با حمایت جنگل و کشاورزی با روش‌هایی که گرفتن کربن در خاک.

اصطلاح‌ها

قبل از دهه ۱۹۸۰ مشخص نبود که آیا اثر گرمایش اثر گلخانه‌ای قوی‌تر از ذرات معلق در آلودگی هوا است یا خیر. دانشمندان از اصطلاح «اصلاح ناخواسته آب و هوا» برای اشاره به تأثیرات انسان بر اقلیم در این زمان استفاده کردند. در دهه ۱۹۸۰، اصطلاحات «گرمایش جهانی» و «تغییر آب و هوا» رایج تر شدند و اغلب به جای یکدیگر استفاده می‌شدند. از نظر علمی، «گرمایش جهانی» تنها به افزایش گرمایش سطح اشاره دارد، در حالی که «تغییر اقلیم» هم گرمایش جهانی و هم اثرات آن بر روی زمین، مانند تغییرات بارندگی را توصیف می‌کند.

«تغییر آب و هوا» همچنین می‌تواند به‌طور گسترده‌تری برای گنجاندن تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم استفاده شود که در طول تاریخ زمین اتفاق افتاده است. «گرمایش جهانی» - در اوایل سال ۱۹۷۵ مورد استفاده قرار گرفت— در سال ۱۹۸۸ محبوبیت این اصطلاح پس شهادت دانشمند آب و هوا ناسا، جیمز هنسن، در مجلس سنای ایالات متحده آمریکا بیشتر شد. از دهه ۲۰۰۰، استفاده از «تغییر آب و هوا» افزایش پیدا کرده است. دانشمندان، سیاستمداران و رسانه‌های مختلف ممکن است از اصطلاحات «بحران اقلیمی» یا «اعلامیه اضطرار اقلیمی» برای صحبت در مورد تغییرات اقلیمی استفاده کنند یا به جای آن از اصطلاح «گرمایش جهانی» استفاده کنند.

Global temperature rise

اطلاعات بیشتر: Global surface temperature

Temperature records prior to global warming

مقاله‌های اصلی: تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم، Temperature record of the last 2,000 years، و Paleoclimatology

Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue. Directly observed data is in red.

Over the last few million years the climate cycled through دوره یخچالی. One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most آخرین بیشینه یخچالی 20,000 years ago was some ۵–۷ °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over ۱۲۵ متر (۴۱۰ فوت) lower than today.

Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning هولوسن. This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the دوران گرمایشی قرون وسطی and the عصر یخبندان کوچک، did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from پروکسی (اقلیم), such as trees and مغزه یخیs.

Warming since the Industrial Revolution

In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.

There has been an increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of the هم‌ارزی تابشی زمین.

Around 1850 دماسنج records began to provide global coverage. Between the 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from گوگرد دی‌اکسید emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes باران اسیدی، but it also produces سولفات aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause so-called تاریک‌شدن زمین. After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to a marked increase in temperature.

NASA animation portraying global surface temperature changes from 1880 to 2023. The colour blue denotes cooler temperatures and red denotes warmer temperatures.

Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than the last: internal تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a so-called "global warming hiatus". After the hiatus, the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even the recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal.

A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because گاز گلخانه‌ایes are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and عقب‌نشینی یخچال‌های طبیعی از سال ۱۸۵۰. At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans, leading to more رطوبت، more and heavier بارش. Plants are گل earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.

Differences by region

Different regions of the world تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by تبخیر سطحی and oceans can store a lot of heat. The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean. The rest has heated the اتمسفر، melted ice, and warmed the continents.

The نیم‌کره شمالی and the قطب شمال have warmed much faster than the قطب جنوب and نیم‌کره جنوبی. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and دریایخ. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start سپیدایی. Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of یخسارs near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of گردش دماشوری، which further changes the distribution of heat and بارش around the globe.

Future global temperatures

CMIP6 multi-model projections of global surface temperature changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average. The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between these two extremes.

The سازمان جهانی هواشناسی estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half.

The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in the early 2030s. The ششمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach ۱٫۰–۱٫۸ °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario. The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.

The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and حساسیت به اقلیم to greenhouse gases. According to برنامه محیط زیست سازمان ملل متحد، global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO₂ . This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO₂ , or 16 years of current emissions.

Causes of recent global temperature rise

مقالهٔ اصلی: ریشه‌های تغییر اقلیم

اجبار تابشی of global warming that has happened so far. Future پتانسیل گرمایش جهانی for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible خطای مشاهده.

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, ال نینو–نوسان جنوبی events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while ال نینو–نوسان جنوبی events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an هم‌ارزی تابشی زمین from اجبار تابشی. Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of گاز گلخانه‌ایes, تابندگی خورشید، آتشفشان eruptions, and وادارنده مداری around the Sun.

To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal تغییرپذیری و تغییر اقلیم. For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in سپیدایی، are less impactful.

Greenhouse gases

مقاله‌های اصلی: گاز گلخانه‌ای، Greenhouse gas emissions، Greenhouse effect، و Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

CO₂ concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)

Greenhouse gases are transparent to نور خورشید، and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth سرمای تابشی، and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.

While بخار آب (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be بازخورد تغییرات اقلیمی that change حساسیت به اقلیم. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO₂

(≈۲۰٪), ازون تروپوسفری، کلروفلوئوروکربن and نیتروز اکسید are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be اجبار تابشی that change global temperatures.

Before the انقلاب صنعتی، naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (زغال‌سنگ، نفت خام، and گاز طبیعی), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a اجبار تابشی. In 2022, the کربن دی‌اکسید در اتمسفر زمین and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO₂

levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2 million years. متان موجود در جو are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.

The Global Carbon Project shows how additions to CO₂ since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were پتانسیل گرمایش جهانی 59 billion tonnes of CO₂ . Of these emissions, 75% was CO₂ , 18% was متان، 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases. CO₂

emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for ترابری، manufacturing, گرما، and electricity. Additional CO2
emissions come from جنگل‌زدایی و تغییر اقلیم and فرایندهای صنعتی، which include the CO2
released by the chemical reactions for سیمان، کوره بلند، فرایند هال–هرولت، and فرایند هابر. Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, برنج، landfills, wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas extraction. Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of کود.

While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO₂

lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of the چرخه کربن. While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO2
every year, that CO2
is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface مخزن کربن processes, such as تثبیت کربن in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO2
emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO2
over the last 2 decades. CO2
is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.

Land surface changes

The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.

Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (یخچال طبیعیs, بیابانs, etc.), 26% is جنگلs, 10% is درختچه‌زار and 34% is زمین کشاورزی. جنگل‌زدایی is the main کاربری سرزمین contributor to global warming, as the destroyed trees release CO₂ , and are not replaced by new trees, removing that مخزن کربن. Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable گسترش کشاورزی for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the کشاورزی نوبتی agricultural systems. 26% was due to درخت‌بری for wood and derived products, and آتش‌سوزی جنگلs have accounted for the remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.

Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (سپیدایی), and how much کولر آبی. For instance, the change from a dark جنگل to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.

Other factors

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of ذرات معلق on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of چگالی تابش was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as تاریک‌شدن زمین, and is primarily attributed to سولفات aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like زغال‌سنگ and bunker fuel. Smaller contributions come from black carbon, organic carbon from combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels, and from anthropogenic dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.

Aerosols also have indirect effects on the هم‌ارزی تابشی زمین. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in اجبار تابشی.

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in دوده that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050.

Solar and volcanic activity

اطلاعات بیشتر: Solar activity and climate

The Fourth National Climate Assessment ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.

As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the سامانه اقلیمی زمین. چرخه خورشیدی has been measured directly by ماهوارهs, and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the تروپوسفر). The upper atmosphere (the استراتوسفر) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.

فوران آتشفشانی can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere. گاز آتشفشانی are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO₂

emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.

Climate change feedbacks

مقاله‌های اصلی: بازخورد تغییرات اقلیمی و Climate sensitivity

Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt still more ice. This is a positive feedback process.

The climate system's response to an initial forcing is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. بازخورد مثبت or positive feedbacks increase the response, while بازخورد منفی or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the گاز گلخانه‌ای، the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is سرمای تابشی، as Earth's surface gives off more فروسرخ to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO₂

on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity.

These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air رطوبت in the form of بخار آب، which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming. This additional warming also contributes to پایایخبندان thawing, which releases methane and CO₂

into the atmosphere.

Around half of human-caused CO₂

emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO2
emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer. The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in گردش دماشوری and فیتوپلانکتون distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover, is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.

Modelling

اطلاعات بیشتر: Climate model و Climate change scenario

Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Most sunlight passes through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface, then greenhouse gases absorb most of the heat the Earth radiates in response. Adding to greenhouse gases increases this insulating effect, causing an هم‌ارزی تابشی زمین that heats the planet up.

A مدل اقلیمی is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate the degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the حساسیت به اقلیم. Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated the rate of کاهش دریایخ شمالگان and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published ارزیابی ملی اقلیم notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts.

A subset of climate models add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, رشد اقتصادی، and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on the socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO₂

concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm.

Impacts

مقالهٔ اصلی: تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم

The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects changes in average soil moisture at 2.0 °C of warming, as measured in انحراف معیارs from the 1850 to 1900 baseline.

Environmental effects

اطلاعات بیشتر: Effects of climate change on oceans و Effects of climate change on the water cycle

The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی روی اقیانوس‌ها، ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since the 1950s, خشکسالیs and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the باد موسمی period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of چرخندهای حاره‌ای و تغییر اقلیم، and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of climate change.

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of انبساط حرارتی and عقب‌نشینی یخچال‌های طبیعی از سال ۱۸۵۰ and یخسار. Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under a very high emission scenario. یخسار processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.

Climate change has led to decades of کاهش دریایخ شمالگان. While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO₂

concentrations cause more CO2
to dissolve in the oceans, which is اسیدی شدن اقیانوس. Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing, and پهنه مرده (بوم‌شناسی) are expanding.

Tipping points and long-term impacts

Different levels of global warming may cause different parts of Earth's climate system to reach tipping points that cause transitions to different states.

مقالهٔ اصلی: نقطه‌های عطف سامانه اقلیمی

Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through 'نقطه‌های عطف سامانه اقلیمی'—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance, the یخسار گرینلند is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major جریان اقیانوسیs like the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the جنگل‌های آمازون and صخره‌های مرجانی can unfold in a matter of decades.

The long-term تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی روی اقیانوس‌ها include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO₂ 's long atmospheric lifetime. The result is an estimated total sea level rise of ۲٫۳ متر بر درجه سلسیوس (۴٫۲ فوت بر درجه فارنهایت) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO₂

uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below ۲٬۰۰۰ متر (۶٬۶۰۰ فوت)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the یخسار جنوبگان باختری appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase the sea levels by at least ۳٫۳ متر (۱۰ فوت ۱۰ اینچ) over approximately 2000 years.

Nature and wildlife

اطلاعات بیشتر: Effects of climate change on oceans و Effects of climate change on biomes

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher فرازا (جغرافیا). For instance, the range of hundreds of North American پرندهs has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO₂

levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced اکوسیستم productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is درنوردیدن گیاهان چوبی، affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the بیابان‌زایی in the جنب‌مدارگان. The size and speed of global warming is making آستانه بوم‌شناختی more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the انقراض of many species.

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, کتانجک، and پرنده دریایی. Ocean acidification makes it harder for کلسیم‌سازی زیست‌زاد دریایی such as صدف سیاهs, کشتی‌چسبs and corals to زیست‌کانی‌سازی; and heatwaves have سفیدشدگی مرجان. شکوفایی جلبکی زیان‌بار enhanced by climate change and پرغذایی lower oxygen levels, disrupt شبکه غذاییs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects.

Climate change impacts on the environment

فروپاشی بوم‌سازگان. سفیدشدگی مرجان from thermal stress has damaged the دیواره بزرگ مرجانی and threatens صخره‌های مرجانیs worldwide. هوای غیرعادی. Drought and high temperatures worsened the آتش‌سوزی جنگل‌های استرالیا (۲۰-۲۰۱۹). تغییر اقلیم در شمالگان. پایایخبندان undermine infrastructure and انتشار متان در شمالگان، a greenhouse gas. نابودی زیستگاه. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic. Pest propagation. Mild winters allow more pine beetles to survive to kill large swaths of forest.

Humans

مقالهٔ اصلی: تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم

Extreme weather will be progressively more common as the Earth warms.

The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in the world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, کشورهای در حال توسعه facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.

Health and food

مقاله‌های اصلی: Effects of climate change on agriculture § Global food security and undernutrition، و Effects of climate change on human health

The سازمان جهانی بهداشت calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. هوای غیرعادی events affect public health, and امنیت غذایی and امنیت آب. تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of عفونت، such as تب دنگی and مالاریا. According to the مجمع جهانی اقتصاد، 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.

While total بازده محصولs have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased the rate of yield growth. Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While بهره‌وری کشاورزی has been positively affected in some high عرض جغرافیایی areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in خشکسالی in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from سوءتغذیه by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global دام (جانور) headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.

Livelihoods and inequality

اطلاعات بیشتر: Economic analysis of climate change و Climate security

Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences. Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources. گرمازدگی can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%. The بانک جهانی estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation.

Inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change. Major difficulties in mitigating, adapting to, and recovering from climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who have less control over resources. بومیان، who are subsistent on their land and ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change. An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in جنگ has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.

While women are not inherently more at risk from climate change and shocks, limits on women's resources and discriminatory gender norms constrain their adaptive capacity and resilience. For example, women's work burdens, including hours worked in agriculture, tend to decline less than men's during climate shocks such as heat stress.

Climate migration

مقالهٔ اصلی: مهاجرت محیط زیستی

Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes urban flooding more common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea. This could lead to بدون تابعیت for people in island nations, such as the مالدیو and تووالو. In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity may be too severe for humans to adapt to. With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in Sahara-like uninhabitable and extremely hot climates.

These factors can drive مهاجرت محیط زیستی or مهاجرت اقلیمی، within and between countries. More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability, leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.

Climate change impacts on people

Environmental migration. Sparser rainfall leads to بیابان‌زایی that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali (2008). Agricultural changes. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US (2013). Tidal flooding. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: ونیز (2004). چرخندهای حاره‌ای و تغییر اقلیم. Bangladesh after Cyclone Sidr (2007) is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall. Heat wave intensification. Events like the 2022 Southern Cone heat wave are becoming more common.

Reducing and recapturing emissions

مقالهٔ اصلی: کاهش تغییر اقلیم

Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, based on policies and pledges as of November 2021

Climate change can be mitigated by reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, and by increasing the rate at which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target. This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.

The برنامه محیط زیست سازمان ملل متحد estimates that countries need to triple their pledges under the Paris Agreement within the next decade to limit global warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal. With pledges made under the Paris Agreement as of 2024, there would be a 66% chance that global warming is kept under 2.8 °C by the end of the century (range: 1.9–3.7 °C, depending on exact implementation and technological progress). When only considering current policies, this raises to 3.1 °C. Globally, limiting warming to ۲ °C may result in higher economic benefits than economic costs.

Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C, most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions. To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in agriculture and forestry, such as preventing جنگل‌زدایی and restoring natural ecosystems by بازجنگل‌کاری.

Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st century. There are concerns, though, about over-reliance on these technologies, and environmental impacts. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is also a possible supplement to deep reductions in emissions. However, SRM raises significant ethical and legal concerns, and the risks are imperfectly understood.

Clean energy

مقاله‌های اصلی: انرژی پایدار و Sustainable transport

Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary عرضه و مصرف انرژی در جهان sources even as انرژی تجدیدپذیر have begun rapidly increasing.

Wind and solar power, Germany

Renewable energy is key to limiting climate change. For decades, fossil fuels have accounted for roughly 80% of the world's energy use. The remaining share has been split between nuclear power and renewables (including انرژی آبی، زیست‌انرژی، wind and solar power and انرژی زمین‌گرمایی). Fossil fuel use is expected to peak in absolute terms prior to 2030 and then to decline, with coal use experiencing the sharpest reductions. Renewables represented 86% of all new electricity generation installed in 2023. Other forms of clean energy, such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a larger share of the energy supply. However, their future growth forecasts appear limited in comparison.

While سامانه فتوولتایی and onshore wind are now among the cheapest forms of adding new power generation capacity in many locations, green energy policies are needed to achieve a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.

Electricity generated from renewable sources would also need to become the main energy source for heating and transport. Transport can switch away from موتور درون‌سوز vehicles and towards وسیله نقلیه الکتریکیs, public transit, and active transport (cycling and walking). For shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels would reduce emissions. Heating could be increasingly decarbonized with technologies like پمپ حرارتیs.

There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables. Wind and solar produce energy انرژی تجدیدپذیر متغیر. Traditionally, نیروگاه تلمبه ذخیره‌ای and fossil fuel power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, battery storage can be expanded, پاسخگویی بار can be matched, and long-distance انتقال انرژی الکتریکی can smooth variability of renewable outputs. Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative consequences for food security. The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around ضایعات هسته‌ای، پروتکل الحاقی به معاهده منع گسترش سلاح‌های هسته‌ای، and accidents. Hydropower growth is limited by the fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and environmental concerns.

Low-carbon energy improves human health by minimizing climate change as well as reducing air pollution deaths, which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase امنیت انرژی and reduce poverty. Improving air quality also has economic benefits which may be larger than mitigation costs.

Energy conservation

مقاله‌های اصلی: بهره‌وری انرژی و Energy conservation

Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions. If less energy is needed, there is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and minimizes ضریب نشر infrastructure development. Major increases in energy efficiency investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable energy. Several دنیاگیری کووید-۱۹ related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.

Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In the transport sector, passengers and freight can switch to more efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles. Industrial strategies to reduce energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products, and increasing product lifetimes. In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings, and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting. The use of technologies like heat pumps can also increase building energy efficiency.

Agriculture and industry

همچنین ببینید: Sustainable agriculture و Green industrial policy

Taking into account direct and indirect emissions, industry is the sector with the highest share of global emissions. Data as of 2019 from the IPCC.

Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand. A set of actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two thirds from 2010 levels. These include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.

On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards رژیم گیاهی. Eliminating the production of livestock for پیامد زیست‌محیطی تولید گوشت would eliminate about 3/4ths of all emissions from agriculture and other land use. Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land degradation.

Steel and cement production are responsible for about 13% of industrial CO₂

emissions. In these industries, carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play an integral role in the production, so that reducing CO2
emissions requires research into alternative chemistries. Where energy production or CO2

-intensive صنایع سنگین continue to produce waste CO₂ , technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere. This technology, جداسازی و ذخیره‌سازی کربن (CCS), could have a critical but limited role in reducing emissions. It is relatively expensive and has been deployed only to an extent that removes around 0.1% of annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon dioxide removal

مقاله‌های اصلی: Carbon dioxide removal و Carbon sequestration

Most CO₂ emissions have been absorbed by مخزن کربنs, including plant growth, soil uptake, and ocean uptake (2020 Global Carbon Budget).

Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of CO₂

beyond naturally occurring levels. Reforestation and جنگل‌کاری (planting forests where there were none before) are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food security concerns. Farmers can promote sequestration of carbon in soils through practices such as use of winter محصول پوششی، reducing the intensity and frequency of خاک‌ورزی، and using compost and manure as soil amendments. Forest and landscape restoration yields many benefits for the climate, including greenhouse gas emissions sequestration and reduction. Restoration/recreation of coastal wetlands, prairie plots and علفزار دریاییs increases the uptake of carbon into organic matter. When carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-released into the atmosphere later through changes in land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.

The use of bioenergy in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions as CO₂

is drawn from the atmosphere. It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.

Adaptation

مقالهٔ اصلی: سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم

Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects". Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts. More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive. The برد سازگاری is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less. The first two decades of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with improved access to basic پساب‌زدایی and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.

Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding, and building مهار سیلs. If that fails, managed retreat may be needed. There are economic barriers for tackling dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having تهویه مطبوع is not possible for everybody. In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification, erosion control, and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate. Insurance allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes. Education, migration and سامانه هشدار سریعs can reduce climate vulnerability. Planting mangroves or encouraging other coastal vegetation can buffer storms.

Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can also be introduced to areas acquiring a favourable climate. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via سازگاری بر پایه بوم‌سازگان. For instance, restoration of natural fire regimes makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.

There are هم‌افزایی but also trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An example for synergy is increased food productivity, which has large benefits for both adaptation and mitigation. An example of a trade-off is that increased use of air conditioning allows people to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Another trade-off example is that more compact برنامه‌ریزی شهری may reduce emissions from transport and construction, but may also increase the جزیره گرمایی شهری effect, exposing people to heat-related health risks.

Examples of adaptation methods

کرنا (گیاه) planting and other حفاظت زیستگاه can reduce سیل ساحلی. دیوار دریاییs to protect against خیزآب worsened by افزایش سطح آب دریاها بام سبزs to provide cooling in cities زادگیری گزینشی for خشکی‌رست

Policies and politics

همچنین ببینید: Politics of climate change و Climate change mitigation § Policies

The Climate Change Performance Index ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).

High

Medium

Low

Very low

Countries that are most vulnerable to climate change have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions. This raises questions about justice and fairness. Limiting global warming makes it much easier to achieve the UN's سند ۲۰۳۰ یونسکو، such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection is recognized in Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts". The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protection have synergies with climate mitigation.

The ژئوپلیتیک of climate change is complex. It has often been framed as a معضل مفت‌سواری، in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a اقتصاد کم‌کربن themselves. Sometimes mitigation also has localized benefits though. For instance, the benefits of a coal phase-out to public health and local environments exceed the costs in almost all regions. Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face stranded assets: fossil fuels they cannot sell.

Policy options

A wide range of خط مشی، مقرراتs, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, قیمت کربن covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon can be priced with مالیات کربنes and تجارت انتشار کربن. Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in. Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths. Money saved on fossil subsidies could be used to support the گذار انرژی instead. More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry. Several countries استاندارد سبد تجدیدپذیر.

Climate justice

Policy designed through the lens of عدالت اقلیمی tries to address حقوق بشر issues and social inequality. According to proponents of climate justice, the costs of climate adaptation should be paid by those most responsible for climate change, while the beneficiaries of payments should be those suffering impacts. One way this can be addressed in practice is to have wealthy nations pay poorer countries to adapt.

Oxfam found that in 2023 the wealthiest 10% of people were responsible for 50% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% were responsible for just 8%. Production of emissions is another way to look at responsibility: under that approach, the top 21 fossil fuel companies would owe cumulative climate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050. To achieve a just transition, people working in the fossil fuel sector would also need other jobs, and their communities would need investments.

International climate agreements

اطلاعات بیشتر: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Since 2000, rising CO₂ emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.

Per person, the United States generates CO₂ at a far faster rate than other primary regions.

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 کنوانسیون چارچوب سازمان ملل متحد درباره تغییر اقلیم (UNFCCC). The goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and تحلیل اقتصادی تغییرات اقلیمی can be sustained. The UNFCCC does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do. Global emissions have risen since the UNFCCC was signed. کنفرانس تغییرات اقلیمی سازمان ملل متحد are the stage of global negotiations.

The 1997 پیمان کیوتو extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions. During the negotiations, the گروه ۷۷ (representing کشورهای در حال توسعه) pushed for a mandate requiring کشورهای توسعه‌یافته to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions, since developed countries contributed most to the انتشار گاز گلخانه‌ای in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were also still relatively low in developing countries and developing countries would need to emit more to meet their development needs.

The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77. Associated parties aimed to limit the global temperature rise to below 2 °C. The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the Green Climate Fund. تا تاریخ ۲۰۲۰, only 83.3 billion were delivered. Only in 2023 the target is expected to be achieved.

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the توافق پاریس، which aims to keep global warming well below 2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under ۷۰۰۲۲۷۴۶۴۹۹۹۹۹۹۹۹۹۹♠۱٫۵ °C. The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate these goals every five years. The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be financially supported. تا تاریخ اکتبر ۲۰۲۱, 194 states and the اتحادیه اروپا have signed the treaty and 191 states and the EU have تصدیق or acceded to the agreement.

The 1987 پیمان مونترال، an international agreement to phase out production of ozone-depleting gases, has had benefits for climate change mitigation. Several ozone-depleting gases like کلروفلوئوروکربن are powerful greenhouse gases, so banning their production and usage may have avoided a temperature rise of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C, as well as additional warming by preventing damage to vegetation from فرابنفش radiation. It is estimated that the agreement has been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so. The most recent amendment to the Montreal Protocol, the 2016 Kigali Amendment, committed to reducing the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases and are also potent greenhouse gases. Should countries comply with the amendment, a warming of 0.3 °C–0.5 °C is estimated to be avoided.

National responses

Annual فهرست کشورها بر پایه تولید دی‌اکسید کربن. This measures fossil fuel and industry emissions. کاربری سرزمین is not included.

In 2019, the مجلس بریتانیا became the first national government to declare a climate emergency. Other countries and حوزه قضاییs followed suit. That same year, the پارلمان اروپا declared a "climate and environmental emergency". The کمیسیون اروپا presented its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050. In 2021, the European Commission released its "Fit for 55" legislation package, which contains guidelines for the صنعت خودروسازی; all new cars on the European market must be خودروهای با آلایندگی صفر from 2035.

Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by 2050, and China by 2060. While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a significant expansion of coal in the country. Vietnam is among very few coal-dependent, fast-developing countries that pledged to phase out unabated coal power by the 2040s or as soon as possible thereafter.

As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, which represent 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels, below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.

Society

Denial and misinformation

اطلاعات بیشتر: Climate change denial و Fossil fuels lobby

Data has been گلچین‌کردن from short periods to falsely assert that global temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue rectangle with blue dots shows the so-called global warming hiatus.

Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and اطلاعات نادرست، which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Climate change denial has originated from fossil fuel companies, industry groups, محافظه‌کاری think tanks, and contrarian scientists. Like the tobacco industry, the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about climate-change related scientific data and results. People who hold unwarranted doubt about climate change are called climate change "skeptics", although "contrarians" or "deniers" are more appropriate terms.

There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change. Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a manufactured controversy: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community in order to delay policy changes. Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions, and questioning the motives of individual scientists. An اتاق پژواک (رسانه) of climate-denying وبلاگ and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.

Public awareness and opinion

اطلاعات بیشتر: Climate communication، Media coverage of climate change، و Public opinion on climate change

The public substantially underestimates the degree of scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change. Studies from 2019 to 2021 found scientific consensus to range from 98.7 to 100%.

Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s. Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change with other environmental issues like ozone depletion. In popular culture, the climate fiction movie پس‌فردا (2004) and the ال گور documentary یک حقیقت ناراحت‌کننده (2006) focused on climate change.

Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat. College biology textbooks from the 2010s featured less content on climate change compared to those from the preceding decade, with decreasing emphasis on solutions. Partisan gaps also exist in many countries, and countries with high انتشار گاز گلخانه‌ای tend to be less concerned. Views on causes of climate change vary widely between countries. Concern has increased over time, and a majority of citizens in many countries now express a high level of worry about climate change, or view it as a global emergency. Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public support for policies that address climate change.

Climate movement

مقاله‌های اصلی: جنبش اقلیمی و Climate change litigation

Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form of public demonstrations, fossil fuel divestment, lawsuits and other activities. Prominent demonstrations include the اعتصاب مدارس برای اقلیم. In this initiative, young people across the globe have been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish teenager گرتا تونبرگ. Mass نافرمانی مدنی actions by groups like شورش علیه انقراض have protested by disrupting roads and public transport.

Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change. Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.

History

برای پوشش گسترده‌تر این موضوع، به History of climate change science رجوع کنید.

Early discoveries

This 1912 article succinctly describes the greenhouse effect, how burning coal creates carbon dioxide to cause global warming and climate change.

Scientists in the 19th century such as الکساندر فون هومبولت began to foresee the effects of climate change. In the 1820s, ژوزف فوریه proposed the greenhouse effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher than the Sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight reaches the surface where it is converted to heat. However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat radiating from the surface, and captures some of that heat, which in turn warms the planet.

In 1856 یونیس نیوتن فوت demonstrated that the warming effect of the Sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide (CO₂ ). She concluded that "An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature..."

Studying what would become known as the greenhouse effect, Tyndall's pre-1861 طیف‌نورسنجی measured how much various gases in a tube absorb and emit infrared radiation—which humans experience as heat.

Starting in 1859, جان تیندال established that nitrogen and oxygen—together totalling 99% of dry air—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic changes in the past, including عصر یخبندانs.

سوانته آرنیوس noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the CO₂

concentration in air was influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased CO2
levels would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first مدل اقلیمی of its kind, projecting that halving CO2
levels could have produced a drop in temperature initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO2
to be around 5–6 °C. Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was saturated so that adding more CO2
would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-regulating. Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming and CO2
levels were rising, but his calculations met the same objections.

Development of a scientific consensus

همچنین ببینید: Scientific consensus on climate change

Scientific consensus on causation: Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. A 2019 study found scientific consensus to be at 100%, and a 2021 study concluded that consensus exceeded 99%. Another 2021 study found that 98.7% of climate experts indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity.

In the 1950s, گیلبرت پلاس created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum. This model predicted that increasing CO₂

levels would cause warming. Around the same time, Hans Suess found evidence that CO2
levels had been rising, and راجر ریول showed that the oceans would not absorb the increase. The two scientists subsequently helped چارلز دیوید کیلینگ to begin a record of continued increase, which has been termed the "Keeling Curve". Scientists alerted the public, and the dangers were highlighted at James Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony. The هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred مطالعات میان‌رشته‌ای. As part of the هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم، scientists assess the scientific discussion that takes place in داوری همتا نشریه علمی articles.

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%. No scientific body of national or international standing اجماع علمی درباره تغییر اقلیم. Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions. The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.

جستارهای وابسته

• آنتروپوسن – فاصله زمانی زمین‌شناسی پیشنهادی که در آن انسان‌ها تأثیرات زمین‌شناسی قابل‌توجهی دارند.

منابع

Sources

 این مقاله دربردارنده متونی از اثر محتوای آزاد است لیسانس تحت CC BY-SA 3.0. نوشته گرفته شده از The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview, FAO, FAO.

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IPCC reports

Fourth Assessment Report

• IPCC (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
  • Le Treut, H.; Somerville, R.; Cubasch, U.; Ding, Y.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science" (PDF). (IPCC AR4 WG1 2007). pp. 93–127.
  • Randall, D. A.; Wood, R. A.; Bony, S.; Colman, R.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation" (PDF). (IPCC AR4 WG1 2007). pp. 589–662.
  • Hegerl, G. C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Braconnot, P.; Gillett, N. P.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (PDF). (IPCC AR4 WG1 2007). pp. 663–745.

• IPCC (2007). Parry, M. L.; Canziani, O. F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P. J.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
  • Schneider, S. H.; Semenov, S.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change" (PDF). (IPCC AR4 WG2 2007). pp. 779–810.

• IPCC (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O. R.; Bosch, P. R.; Dave, R.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
  • Rogner, H. -H.; Zhou, D.; Bradley, R.; Crabbé, P.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 1: Introduction" (PDF). (IPCC AR4 WG3 2007). pp. 95–116.

Fifth Assessment report

• IPCC (2013). Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G. -K.; Tignor, M.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (PDF). Contribution of Working Group I to the پنجمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK & New York: انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-1-107-05799-9.. AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – IPCC
  • IPCC (2013). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013).
  • Hartmann, D. L.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Rusticucci, M.; Alexander, L. V.; et al. (2013). "Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013). pp. 159–254.
  • Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S. R.; Aoki, S.; Campos, E.; et al. (2013). "Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013). pp. 255–315.
  • Masson-Delmotte, V.; Schulz, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Beer, J.; et al. (2013). "Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013). pp. 383–464.
  • Bindoff, N. L.; Stott, P. A.; AchutaRao, K. M.; Allen, M. R.; et al. (2013). "Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013). pp. 867–952.
  • Collins, M.; Knutti, R.; Arblaster, J. M.; Dufresne, J. -L.; et al. (2013). "Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG1 2013). pp. 1029–1136.

• IPCC (2014). Field, C. B.; Barros, V. R.; Dokken, D. J.; Mach, K. J.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the پنجمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-1-107-05807-1.. Chapters 1–20, SPM, and Technical Summary.
  • Olsson, L.; Opondo, M.; Tschakert, P.; Agrawal, A.; et al. (2014). "Chapter 13: Livelihoods and Poverty" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014). pp. 793–832.
  • Cramer, W.; Yohe, G. W.; Auffhammer, M.; Huggel, C.; et al. (2014). "Chapter 18: Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014). pp. 979–1037.
  • Oppenheimer, M.; Campos, M.; Warren, R.; Birkmann, J.; et al. (2014). "Chapter 19: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014). pp. 1039–1099.
• IPCC (2014). Barros, V. R.; Field, C. B.; Dokken, D. J.; Mach, K. J.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects (PDF). Contribution of Working Group II to the پنجمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK & New York: انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-1-107-05816-3.. Chapters 21–30, Annexes, and Index.
  • Larsen, J. N.; Anisimov, O. A.; Constable, A.; Hollowed, A. B.; et al. (2014). "Chapter 28: Polar Regions" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG2 B 2014). pp. 1567–1612.

• IPCC (2014). Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y.; Farahani, E.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the پنجمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK & New York, NY: انتشارات دانشگاه کمبریج. ISBN 978-1-107-05821-7.
  • Lucon, O.; Ürge-Vorsatz, D.; Ahmed, A.; Akbari, H.; et al. (2014). "Chapter 9: Buildings" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG3 2014).
  • Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y.; Farahani, E.; et al. (2014). "Annex III: Technology-specific Cost and Performance Parameters" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 WG3 2014). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC AR5 SYR (2014). The Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R. K.; Meyer, L. A. (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the پنجمین گزارش هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
  • IPCC (2014). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 SYR 2014).
  • IPCC (2014). "Annex II: Glossary" (PDF). (IPCC AR5 SYR 2014).

Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C

• IPCC (2018). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pörtner, H. -O.; Roberts, D.; et al. (eds.). Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (PDF). هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم. Global Warming of 1.5 °C –.
  • IPCC (2018). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 3–24.
  • Allen, M. R.; Dube, O. P.; Solecki, W.; Aragón-Durand, F.; et al. (2018). "Chapter 1: Framing and Context" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 49–91.
  • Rogelj, J.; Shindell, D.; Jiang, K.; Fifta, S.; et al. (2018). "Chapter 2: Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5 °C in the Context of Sustainable Development" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 93–174.
  • Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jacob, D.; Taylor, M.; Bindi, M.; et al. (2018). "Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 175–311.
  • de Coninck, H.; Revi, A.; Babiker, M.; Bertoldi, P.; et al. (2018). "Chapter 4: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 313–443.
  • Roy, J.; Tschakert, P.; Waisman, H.; Abdul Halim, S.; et al. (2018). "Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities" (PDF). (IPCC SR15 2018). pp. 445–538.

Special Report: Climate change and Land

• IPCC (2019). Shukla, P. R.; Skea, J.; Calvo Buendia, E.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; et al. (eds.). IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems (PDF). In press.
  • IPCC (2019). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). (IPCC SRCCL 2019). pp. 3–34.
  • Jia, G.; Shevliakova, E.; Artaxo, P. E.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; et al. (2019). "Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions" (PDF). (IPCC SRCCL 2019). pp. 131–247.
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Special Report: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

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نوشتارهای صوتی بیشتر

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC (هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم)
• UN: Climate Change (سازمان ملل متحد)
• Met Office: Climate Guide (Met Office)
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